The 6% reduction is due to the coronavirus epidemic. Despite the decline this year, Ukraine’s economy in general is beginning to recover gradually and is expected to grow by 4% next year.
The NBU also forecasts that by the end of 2020 the inflation rate will rise to 4.7%, which almost corresponds to the medium-term goal of the National Bank – 5% in the coming years.
It is noted that the most difficult period for the economy is over. Quarantine mitigation measures have improved business activity, which, together with soft monetary and fiscal policies, will significantly support economic growth in the coming years. It should be noted that the pace of recovery is constrained by depressed demand from investors and consumers amid uncertainty about the further spread of the coronavirus.
According to the NBU forecasts, the recovery of economic activity in various spheres of activity will be uneven. Thus, the most affected areas of trade, transport and services will be the slowest to recover.
Metallurgy will recover along with global demand next year, and agriculture will suffer the least from quarantine. The IT sector, on the other hand, has received new directions of development, especially in the field of remote work.